I had occasion to speak to NASA's
annual executive conference two months ago. The topic that
day was fundamentally quality and especially in aerospace,
but there was a lesson relevant to today, as you will see
in a couple of minutes.
NASA Administrator Dan Goldin has
been challenging the industry and its overseers to target
a ten fold reduction in commercial carrier major accidents
over the next twenty years, or alternatively we face the prospect
of such a major accident every week by the year 2015 or so,
given present traffic growth and accident incidence rates.
Speaking to that audience caused
me to go back to historic accident rates to determine that
we have already had almost a ten fold drop in incidence over
the course of the jet age, down actually 86%. And, although
our engines are not often involved in accidents -- about 8%
of the time, to be precise, as even a contributing factor
-- we have also gotten much better.
The early Pratt & Whitney JT9D's,
the world's first high bypass large commercial jet engines,
experienced in-flight shutdown rates of about forty events
per 100,000 engine flight hours (EFH) in those early years.
Work the math and it's about one in-flight shutdown per engine
per year.
Today, the ETOPS standard is two
events per 100,000 EFH, twenty times better than our performance
three decades ago. This ETOPS standard applies to, among others,
the new “big twin” aircraft, the Airbus A330 and Boeing 777.
We have flown our engines for these aircraft already about
500,000 EFH over the first two years of flight operation.
Against the standard, we should have had ten in-flight shutdowns
and in fact we have had only three, and two were tragic misinstallations
of lubricant shipping line plugs. So if we take just a little
credit for these two events, our rate is a fifth of an event
per 100,000 EFH or virtually two orders of magnitude (one
hundred fold) improved over thirty years.
Why do I tell you this?
Well, I will let you in on a secret.
Until seven or eight years ago, I didn't really appreciate
the magnitude of compounding (as in compound interest) in
operating improvements and gains in effectiveness of equipment
of all sorts.
We all know about gains in information
technologies. Take some other ones. Throughout his life, ending
in 1953, the astronomer Edwin Hubble never saw resolution
in one of his telescopes of better than one second of arc.
For the non celestial and non navigator types here, there
are sixty seconds of arc in a minute, and sixty minutes of
arc in a degree, and evidently 360º of arc in a circle.
But now the resolution available
with the telescope named in Hubble's honor is one thousand
times more precise, which is why, among other things, astronomers
began about six months ago confirming discoveries of many,
many planetary systems just like our own.
Or, a softer and even more important
statistic: only 8% of adult Americans had college degrees
in 1960 and only 41% had high school diplomas, and today's
college degree rate is 23% (3 times higher) and high school
rate 82% (twice higher).
In your own field, 13,800 Americans
died on the job in 1960, a rate of 21 fatalities for each
100,000 employed. And in 1994, 5,000 died, a rate of four
per 100,000, or five times better.
Three classes of improvements have
driven this compounding lesson home for me, and I expect for
many other executives and Americans too.
First was process re-engineering:
the amazing gains we have seen in our own plants, one after
the other, consequent on process mapping, reductions in numbers
of operations we employ to make a part, assembly or product,
thereby minimizing handoffs between operations and operatives
and therefore delays, inventories, distances travelled, and
costs.
The fact of the matter is that the
improved performance we see across UTC today is due substantially
to process re-engineering.
The second amazing compounding we
are seeing is in the quality of our products and services.
Here, I believe, we are perhaps two years behind our process
re-engineering efforts, but I am entirely confident that we
are seeing and will see much more of the same kinds of gains.
In quality, just as in process re-engineering,
there are defined, standard and understood techniques to make
us better. They come fundamentally from Japan and are brought
to us principally by our friend and mentor, Ito-san, the Corporate
Quality Assurance Advisor to UTC's Presidents Council.
One is QCPC, or Quality Control Process
Charting. This fundamentally converts operatives to self inspection,
in the course of doing so typically expanding inspection points
six fold and catching nonconforming material much faster and
at source. Further, we train operatives to record, and to
root cause correct -- typically by adjustment in their own
processes -- defects.
A second quality methodology is 5S,
the notion of a plant and a work flow so clean and so visually
laid out that the process is totally clear not just to the
operative, but to the casual observer.
The 5S's stand for sort (keep what
you need and discard the rest), straighten (a place for everything
and everything in its place), standardize (create an organized,
logical work flow), sustain (keep it up), and shine (we know
what that means).
You can tell from a long way away
when a place has been 5S'ed.
A third quality methodology is relentless
root cause analysis. This is an obvious discipline, which
I'd like to illustrate with an example from many years ago.
In the early 1980s, I was responsible
for Otis' business in the United States. We shipped then early
generation electronic control elevators to Japan from the
U.S. These were high speed elevators for tall buildings, because
the U.S. was the tall building market in the world, and this
was where we had concentrated development of these products.
One of our early Japanese installations
was a Matsushita Electric facility. Matsushita is our partner
in Japan and evidently a large and powerful and influential
company.
Japanese elevator market standards
allow you about a half a failure per elevator per year. American
market standards are about four failures per elevator per
year, and these elevators we installed for Matsushita were
ten times worse than the American standard, about forty failures
per year.
I learned something which truly surprised
me at the time. The elevator business has employees called
field engineers: long time field and technically trained employees
who know every kind of problem an elevator can have post installation
and know how to fix it. Our field engineers also generate
TIPs, Technical Information Publications, which are essentially
a guide to fix nonconforming product in field service. In
a word, they're Band-Aids.
As the head of U.S. Otis, I sent
immediately two of our best field engineers to Japan to fix
these elevators. They called me and said they could not get
their job done. The Japanese would not let them apply TIPs.
Instead, the Japanese stuck them in a conference room and
began detailed and relentless root cause analysis. The Japanese
were entirely willing to tolerate nonconforming product to
get to root cause.
Americans, I learned, are too quick
with the field engineer; too quick with the Band-Aid. The
Japanese can't stand things that don't get fixed at root cause
and this is what my friend Ito-san brings to us.
Beyond quality and productivity,
the third compounding is right in your own area -- Environment,
Health and Safety -- and broadly and absolutely you can be
just as proud of your achievements as others throughout UTC
can be of theirs, and, importantly, just as confident in your
future gains.
You will hear others recite these
statistics over these two days, so I will be brief:
- lost work day injury incidence
rate of 1.4 per 100 employees in 1996, 64% improved since
1992;
- injury severity worldwide down
71% since 1992;
- workers' compensation costs, which
we measure only in the U.S., down more than half since 1992
and saving us happily $46 million annually even after paying
for medical cost inflation;
- a rate of serious injuries so far
this year across UTC at under a third of last year, the
consequence of our machine guarding initiative being now
98% complete;
- U.S. hazardous waste generated
last year 77% below the 1988 base year, and chemical releases
to air and water comparably 84% below 1988;
- U.S. reportable chemical spills
last year totalling 14, half of the lowest rate in any of
the last five years; and
- zero fines, zero, to our U.S. regulatory
authorities, a first since everybody began getting serious
about the environment a decade ago.
Now our E,H&S record, while overall
very good and especially in these rates of improvement,
still has a ways to go. We know also that improvements
always come from diagnoses of weaknesses, errors and omissions,
and here are some of ours.
Our lost work day incidence gain
in the U.S. is really not as good as we claim, for a little
over half of the improvement isn't accidents that went
away, they instead ended with employees coming back on
restricted duty rather than having time away from work.
And our overall recordable accident
rate, again U.S. only and defined as any accident requiring
more than first aid, has dropped only 14% since 1992,
hardly the 67% rate we like to cite for the same period
for U.S. lost work day incidence, or the 64% I just cited
for our global performance.
And peers are better, indeed
in some cases much better: Allied Signal's lost work day
incidence rate is 0.3 (less than a quarter of our own
1.4 rate), Dupont's (world best in class) is 0.04, 34
times better than we, and even the average rate of the
ORC group of 39 larger companies of our size and type
is 0.9, a third better than ours.
In other words, all these gains
and congratulations and we are still below average.
The last set of errors and omissions
is the tough one, the toughest one: fatalities.
We know the record, and we know
the goal. The latter is of course zero, as it must be,
but our progress is sadly zero too, and this fact is flatly
unacceptable to any person in this room.
We did have 12 fatalities last
year, and a total of 59 over the last five years. For
comparison, we need to note only that we are number one
on this measure among the 39 ORC companies, that the next
nearest ORC company had 4 fatalities (a third of our own),
and that we accounted for 34% of all ORC fatalities.
There may be some mitigation
available, but I caution myself and all of us not to take
much refuge here: one of our fatalities last year was
motor vehicle related, and four arose in the truly tragic
Sikorsky CH-53E helicopter crash, consequent on a nonconforming,
critical vendor assembly.
But even with this mitigation,
which is arguable anyway, we were still first on the ORC
list for at least the fifth year in a row.
We have had some egregious instances,
and I am going to be so forthcoming here as to cite these,
for we will only improve by examining clearly and honestly
our own mistakes and omissions, no matter how repugnant
they may be to us.
At the end of 1995, an Otis employee
in Brazil lost his life consequent on working with an
electrically powered hand tool without adequate ground
fault circuit interruption protection. This in spite of
the facts that this is a clearly identified risk, that
GFCI's have been mandatory for Otis companies since 1992,
that Otis Brazil had committed to its own plan to have
GFCI's in place by 1994, and that a UTC audit earlier
in 1995 had identified to management Otis Brazil's noncompliance
with its own GFCI plan.
Six months ago, an Otis Spain
employee lost his life consequent on inadequate job site
scaffolding and barricading. Again, management was certainly
on notice of hazards and needs for improvement.
In early 1995, a UTC audit of
Otis Spain identified “a priority issue: unguarded fall
hazards and unsafe hoistway work practices at most construction
and service job sites,” and concluded that “immediate
measures are required to mitigate the probability and
potential severity of an accident from the hazards and/or
conditions identified in this review.”
Six months later, an Otis Spain
employee fell and received multiple injuries. Another
employee fell in February, 1996, resulting in a fractured
skull. Then the fatal fall occurred at the end of last
year, ten months later.
I do have here an unpleasant
message for all of us. Several years ago, we said to ourselves
that we needed policy and practice to be promulgated throughout
our company, and to allow time and opportunity for adjustment
and compliance.
Then we began to make incentive
compensation adjustments in the face of problems. There
were sometimes disputes about these, with UTC being normally
more aggressive than operating management.
I believe we have come now to
a need for harsher sanctions, most especially in the face
of non-compliance with audit issues resulting in serious
injuries or fatalities and where there has been time and
opportunity for adjustment and compliance.
We just don't want management
responsible for problems and behaviors like this to be
part of our team. We will accordingly seek termination
of employment where problems of this extreme degree develop,
for management responsible for the development and execution
of the safety compliance plan involved.
This harsh message being said,
we may, maybe, be on the track to some gains this year
with just two fatalities through today. Both were Carrier
accidents, with one being in that arguably mitigating
category, this time a small private airplane crash. But
we charged ourselves because supervision authorized the
flight.
Some improvements, but we know
we have a long, long way to go.
Now I don't propose to advise
us in detail today on how to achieve the gains I know
we will achieve, just as we will continue exemplary achievements
in quality and productivity and cost. But I will give
you one tip, supplementing the many specifics you will
be hearing over the next two days: look to our Japanese
quality methodologies and especially to the 5S and relentless
root cause work I outlined earlier. There are real lessons
here, and they work, absolutely. Indeed, I need look no
further than relentless root cause analyses in the fatality
reviews we have conducted over the last seven years, and
the impact these have had on our company, to be sure of
this.
I do want to advise you on goals.
Indeed, at that NASA conference, I readily and publicly
signed us up for another ten fold reduction in Pratt &
Whitney's in-flight shutdown rate, relative to today's
ETOPS standard, over the next ten years. And I don't have
the slightest concern about achieving this goal.
I comparably challenge you to
ten fold improved E,H&S performance over the next ten
years, just as you have substantially achieved ten fold
gains in most areas over the last ten years.
This is what compounding is all
about. What is absolutely different at UTC now, as compared
to just a few years ago, is that we know that it works,
for sure, and that we can do it, for sure.
Thank you very much.